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About Airtham

Chevetol Resources (Registered Trademark “Airtham”) is a SEBI-registered research firm based in Ahmedabad, India. The firm is founded by Shail Apte, who serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Chevetol Resources focuses on macro & equity research for U.S & India.

Our approach

At Airtham, we pursue macroeconomic research using first principles. This implies that we start our analysis from scratch, constructing our economic models from the ground up, beginning with fundamental ideas.

Our method includes a thorough analysis of economic theory, taking into account the fundamental ideas that guide the actions of economic agents like households, businesses, governments, and central banks. Then, using this theoretical foundation, we create models that can aid in our understanding of how the macroeconomy operates.

In particular, we concentrate on developing models that are consistent with observed data and that have strong predictive power. In our study, we also emphasise the value of empirical validation. This implies that we not only attempt to build models that are consistent with theory, but also ones that are supported by empirical evidence. To verify the accuracy of our models and improve our comprehension of the macroeconomy, we employ a range of data sources and analysis techniques.

Overall, the goal of our first-principles-driven approach to macroeconomic research is to develop models that are strong, trustworthy, and based on solid economic theory. This method, in our opinion, enables us to more fully comprehend the intricate processes of the macroeconomy and make precise future forecasts.

Our process

We create macroeconomic forecasts using a data-driven null hypothesis method. In accordance with the falsifiability principle, which underpins our methodology, we first formulate a null hypothesis for each first-principle relationship pertaining to the status of the economy before attempting to test and improve it through the use of data and statistical analysis.

To achieve this, we utilize a variety of in-house models and indicators that are intended to capture key macroeconomic factors like inflation, money supply, rate environment, employment, and economic growth. These models are continuously improved and updated as new information becomes accessible and are built on a combination of economic theory, historical data, and professional judgement.

We perform a rigorous statistical analysis using these indicators and models to verify the validity of our null hypothesis and improve our forecasts. With the goal of evaluating the precision and dependability of our forecasts, this analysis compares our predicted values to the real data.

In our forecasting method, accountability and transparency are also very important to us. This indicates that we are open and transparent about our methodologies and assumptions, as well as constantly searching for ways to enhance our models and incorporate fresh data sources.

Overall, our data-driven null hypothesis method aims to generate reliable, accurate, and empirically supported macroeconomic forecasts. This method, in our opinion, enables us to produce forecasts that are both informative and actionable , assisting our clients in making informed decisions about their investment decisions and business strategies.

How we work with our clients

At Airtham, we are more than just economists and analysts – we are storytellers on a mission to explain the complex forces that influence the global economy. We achieve this by conducting macroeconomic research using a first principle-driven methodology and creating macroeconomic forecasts using a data-driven null hypothesis process. In continuous testing and improvement of our high-conviction views, our culture is characterized by a relentless quest for accountability and accuracy.

Our clients rely on us not only for our insights, but also for our ability to communicate complex ideas in a clear and compelling manner. Our insights effectively serve the specific needs of investment professionals across wide range of asset classes.

We take pride in the fact that our clients use our insights as a source of specific ideas to guide their trades and asset allocation choices as well as input for their own research process. Our strategy and procedures are created to be open and accountable, giving our clients the assurance and belief they require to successfully navigate the challenges of the global economy. We work to significantly improve the value we provide to those we serve by fusing our meticulous approach and procedure with our dedication to open communication and transparency.

Our Latest Insights

temp employment sep 2023 10-5x6-5 airtham

Can US Skip the Recession?

September 6, 2023 / Shail Apte
The most recent labor market data paints a concerning picture of overall weakness. Typically, the effects of changes in interest rates take some time to ripple through the economy. Historically, this lag has been around 18 months. Interestingly, this pattern held true as, precisely 18 months after the initial rate hike in March 2022, we are now witnessing the visible impact this month. The Federal Reserve consistently raised rates throughout 2022, suggesting that the consequences of these consecutive hikes will continue to materialize as the year unfolds.
shiller pe and inflation aug 2023 10-5x6-5 usa airtham macro sp500 usa

SP500 & Inflation Update: Aug 2023

August 11, 2023 / Shail Apte
Airtham Macro Research: The July headline CPI release followed predictions of a slight increase, yet the actual magnitude was less significant than anticipated. This outcome sparked optimism within the market, leading to a surge in activity and speculation of a potential pause in rate hikes. However, this optimistic rally was short-lived as market participants quickly adjusted their expectations. The weaker-than-expected inflation reading meant a potential decline in economic demand. This perspective gains support from jobless claims data released a few days back, that showed claims rising to a 1.5-year high. Consequently, there's now a debate over whether further inflation reduction is beneficial or detrimental to the markets.
federal tax receipts jul 2023 10-5x6-5 airtham macro

What’s Happening to US Tax Receipts?

July 25, 2023 / Shail Apte
One of the most crucial indicators for gauging the health of a country lies in its government tax receipts. When tax receipts rise in tandem with economic growth, it signals a thriving nation. Conversely, economic downturns often witness an accompanying decline in tax receipts. However, what's truly concerning is when tax receipts decline despite a healthy and expanding economy.
sp500 shiller pe inflation july 2023 10-5x6-5 airtham macro usa

S&P500 Shiller PE Vs Inflation: July 2023 Update

July 14, 2023 / Shail Apte
The latest inflation data for June indicates a significant decrease in inflation across various components, which has led to a surge in market indexes. The current conditions are favorable for a market rally. On one hand, the economy is stable, with record-low unemployment rates and expanding GDP. On the other hand, inflationary pressures are easing, resulting in increased asset valuations across the board.
fii sectorial flows june 2023 july 2023 airtham 10-5x6-5

FII Sectorial Flows India: June 2023 Update

July 11, 2023 / Shail Apte
India has experienced a consistent influx of positive FII flows over the past four months, and it appears that this
copper to gold ratio 10 year yield july 2023 10-5x6-5 airtham

Predicting Bond Yields with Copper-to-Gold Ratio

July 5, 2023 / Shail Apte
The relationship between the copper-to-gold ratio and the 10-year US Treasury yield has been extensively studied due to its predictive potential for yields. This relationship stems from the distinct characteristics of copper and gold in response to the business cycle.