Previous Research India Credit Impulse Impacts USD-INR Exchange Rates
Oil price prediction is a service we offer at Airtham, and so far, our forecasts have been accurate.
One of the ways we improve the accuracy of our forecasts is to look at the Chinese data. Since China is the world’s factory, its raw material imports have a direct effect on commodity prices. We use Chinese monthly import data as a coincident indicator. Predicting oil prices is a piece of cake if one is able to accurately forecast the upcoming trend in Chinese monthly imports.
Chinese import trend forecasting is not as complex as it may seem. However, we’ll save that study for another time. For now, changes in the monthly imports of China directly translate into changes in oil prices and thus unless China’s monthly imports are expected to rise, the oil prices won’t be climbing too high.
Can US Skip the Recession?
The most recent labor market data paints a concerning picture of overall weakness. Typically, the effects of changes in interest rates take some time to ripple through the economy. Historically, this lag has been around 18 months. Interestingly, this pattern held true as, precisely 18 months after the initial rate hike in March 2022, we are now witnessing the visible impact this month. The Federal Reserve consistently raised rates throughout 2022, suggesting that the consequences of these consecutive hikes will continue to materialize as the year unfolds.
SP500 & Inflation Update: Aug 2023
Airtham Macro Research: The July headline CPI release followed predictions of a slight increase, yet the actual magnitude was less significant than anticipated. This outcome sparked optimism within the market, leading to a surge in activity and speculation of a potential pause in rate hikes. However, this optimistic rally was short-lived as market participants quickly adjusted their expectations. The weaker-than-expected inflation reading meant a potential decline in economic demand. This perspective gains support from jobless claims data released a few days back, that showed claims rising to a 1.5-year high. Consequently, there's now a debate over whether further inflation reduction is beneficial or detrimental to the markets.
What’s Happening to US Tax Receipts?
One of the most crucial indicators for gauging the health of a country lies in its government tax receipts. When tax receipts rise in tandem with economic growth, it signals a thriving nation. Conversely, economic downturns often witness an accompanying decline in tax receipts. However, what's truly concerning is when tax receipts decline despite a healthy and expanding economy.